BTC Production Cost
Roughly what it costs to mine one bitcoin, computed from the Cambridge (CBECI) estimate of how much electricity the whole network uses, divided by the coins issued each day. The band is Cambridge's own best-case to worst-case spread; the middle line is their best estimate. When the price falls into or under this band, the average miner is producing at a loss — pressure that has historically appeared near bear-market bottoms (December 2018, November 2022).
The estimated electricity cost of mining one bitcoin. Three lines: Cambridge's best estimate of network power use converted to dollars per coin (middle), and their lower-bound and upper-bound estimates (the band edges).
Price inside or below the band means the average miner spends more on electricity than a newly mined coin is worth. Miners can run at a loss for a while, but not forever — the weakest switch off, selling pressure dries up, and both prior deep touches (December 2018, November 2022) sat at bear-market bottoms. It is a pressure gauge, not a buy signal.
cost per BTC = (annualized TWh ÷ 365.25, in kWh per day) × $0.05 per kWh ÷ (block subsidy × 144 blocks per day). Computed separately for Cambridge's MIN, GUESS and MAX consumption estimates.
Electricity only — hardware, cooling, staff and capital costs are not included, so the true all-in cost sits above this line. The $0.05/kWh price is Cambridge's standard assumption, not any specific miner's bill. Transaction fees are excluded on the income side: cost is compared against newly issued coins only. The band steps sharply at each halving because the same electricity suddenly mints half the coins.
Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance CBECI daily series (public download, 2014 to today), refreshed daily into our own database; issuance from the protocol schedule. We recompute the number from public inputs — nothing is scraped from anyone's chart.
Computed in-house from Cambridge CBECI daily energy data + the protocol issuance schedule, 2014 to today