BTC Monte Carlo
Where could Bitcoin be in 100 days? This shuffles Bitcoin's own recent daily moves thousands of times to draw a range of possible outcomes — a middle path with a wide band around it. A range of possibilities, not a prediction.
A simulation. It takes the last two years of bitcoin's actual daily price moves, shuffles them at random into 2,000 different possible 100-day futures, and shows the middle result plus the band containing 90% of them.
The width of the cone is the message — it is a picture of uncertainty. For example, if the middle path ends at $120,000 with a band running from $70,000 to $210,000, that means nine out of ten shuffled futures landed somewhere in that very wide range, which tells you honestly how little anyone can pin down.
The middle path **is not** a target and carries no more weight than any other point inside the band, and real life can land outside the band entirely.
In words: collect every daily price move from the last 730 days, then build 2,000 imaginary futures by drawing 100 of those moves at random with repeats allowed, each starting from today's price. At every future day, report the middle outcome plus the 5th and 95th out of 100 [historical bootstrap of daily log-returns].
It assumes tomorrow looks like a random day from the last two years, so it captures that period's wild swings but nothing genuinely new — no change of market regime and no event without precedent. The random draws start from a fixed seed, so the cone stays the same between page refreshes and **only** shifts when a new daily price lands.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today). Simulation runs in code — no external API at request time.
Own compute · bootstrap from BTC price history