BTC S2F Variance: 0.109
How far bitcoin's actual price is from the Stock-to-Flow model price. 1.0 means exactly on the model; far below means the price is nowhere near what the model claims, which has been the case since 2021.
The real price divided by the price the scarcity model suggests. It boils the two lines of the S2F Expected Price chart down to one ratio.
For example, 0.22 means bitcoin trades at about a fifth of what the model says it should — the model is wildly out. Values **above** 1 mean the price is running ahead of the model, which happened during earlier cycle peaks.
The scale is stretched because the gap has spanned enormous ranges. Read this as a scoreboard of how badly the model is doing, not as a level the price must return to.
In words: the actual price divided by the Stock-to-Flow model price described on the S2F Expected Price chart.
It carries every weakness of the model it measures: that model ignores demand entirely and has not tracked the price since 2021.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points). No external API at request time.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ (no external API)