Bitcoin Market Cycles
Bitcoin's price history coloured by how stretched the market was at the time: cool blue when coins were cheap against what owners paid, hot red when they were far above it. Every point shown is real up to the date on the badge above the chart.
The price line with each day tinted by how far the total value of all bitcoin sat **above** or **below** what its owners paid, scored against Bitcoin's own history — the same measure as the MVRV Z-Score chart.
The colour is the whole message. For example, deep blue days are ones where bitcoin was worth close to or less than what its owners paid, and every past cycle bottom is blue.
Deep **red** days are ones where owners sat on extreme profits, and every past cycle top is red. Comparing today's colour with the same colour in past cycles is the fastest way to see whether the market is stretched.
In words: draw bitcoin's price and colour each day by how many typical swings the market's profit gap sat **above** its own long-run average that day, running from cold blue at the low end to hot **red** at the high end.
Every point on screen was counted by **our own Bitcoin node** — a full copy of the blockchain that we run ourselves — and the line runs up to the date on the badge **above** the chart. A day our node could not count is left as a gap; it is never filled in from another source.
The colour scale is fixed to Bitcoin's own past, and each cycle has peaked at a lower reading than the last, so today's red **is not** identical to 2017's red.
Coloured by the same MVRV Z-Score our MVRV Z-Score chart draws, computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node's realized cap and coin supply against the daily BTC closing price we store. The score needs 200 days of history, so the colouring starts in 2011. No outside metrics feed is involved.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since 2011 · recomputed daily