S2F Expected Price
A model price built purely from Bitcoin's scarcity, drawn against the real price. The model has been badly wrong since 2021 — it is here as history and comparison, not as a forecast.
The Stock-to-Flow model takes how many years of production it would take to recreate all existing bitcoin, then turns that one number into a suggested price using a formula published by the analyst known as PlanB.
The gap between the two lines is the story. For example, if the model line sits at $500,000 while the real price is $110,000, the model claims scarcity alone should command far more — but that gap has stayed open for years, which is precisely the model's problem.
In earlier cycles the real price crossed **above** and **below** the model line; since 2021 it has stayed far below. Treat this as a famous idea whose track record broke down, not as a target.
In words: divide all existing coins by the coins created in the last 12 months, cube that number and multiply by 0.4 [0.4 × S2F³, PlanB's published fit], then draw it against the actual price.
The exact constant varies between the published versions of this model; we use the standard 0.4. The model has failed to track the price since 2021, and nothing inside it accounts for demand.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points). No external API at request time. + deterministic issuance model.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ (no external API)