BTC Advanced Cycle Repeat: $79,676.63
What if history repeats? The 2016 and 2020 cycles' price paths are rescaled to this cycle's halving-day price and laid over today's timeline, including the part still ahead. Not a prediction — a picture of how the last two cycles rhymed.
Two overlay lines. Each takes a past cycle's actual price path, resizes it so its halving day matches the 2024 halving-day price, and places it on today's calendar, so you can see where the current price sits against those older shapes.
The overlay to the right of today is the past moved forward, not a forecast. For example, if the 2020 overlay reads $500,000 a year from now, that means **only** that the 2020 cycle rose by that multiple over the same stretch after its own halving.
Bitcoin has had four cycles in total, each less explosive than the one before, so treat any agreement between them as a rhyme rather than a schedule.
In words: take the 2016 and 2020 cycles' daily prices, multiply each by whatever factor makes its halving-day price equal the 2024 halving-day price, then draw them along the current timeline through the estimated 2028 halving. The overlay lines are sampled every two days.
This is a historical comparison with no model behind it — nothing here calculates a fair value or a probability. The forward part of the overlays is old price data drawn on future dates and must **never** be read as an expected price.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points). No external API at request time.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ (no external API)