BTC Bitcoin Cycle Phases: $81,256.73
Bitcoin's price with its four repeating phases shaded behind it, each one carrying the move it made. Crash, accumulation, growth, bubble — the same order every cycle since 2011. The last band is the one we are in now.
A **cycle peak** is an all-time high that then stands untouched for nine months. From each peak the same four phases follow: the **crash** down to the cycle's lowest day; the **accumulation** that lasts until price has doubled off that low; the **growth** that lasts until the old record is taken out; and the **bubble** that runs from there to the next peak.
Read it left to right and the rhythm is hard to miss: every cycle since 2011 has run crash → accumulation → growth → bubble, and every crash has taken 77% to 93% off the price.
The sizes shrink. The bubble into 2013 was worth thousands of percent, into 2017 over a thousand, into 2021 about 240%, into 2025 about 80%. A bigger market moves less, in percentage terms, for the same money.
**The last band has no right edge**: today sits inside it, its low can still be undercut, and its percentage moves with the price.
All of it from our own daily closes, nothing else. Find every all-time high that is not exceeded for the next 270 days — those are the cycle peaks. For each peak: the lowest close before the next peak ends the crash; the first day at twice that low ends the accumulation; the first day back above the old peak ends the growth; the next peak ends the bubble. Each band prints the change between its own first and last day. Nine months is a deliberate choice and a stable one: anything from eight to ten returns the same five peaks — 2011-06, 2013-12, 2017-12, 2021-11 and 2025-10.
Four and a half cycles is a very small sample, and nothing forces the fifth to rhyme with the first four. The phase boundaries are one defensible rule among several — a different 'when does accumulation end' would move them by weeks, though not by years. Most of all: **the current band is provisional**. A peak is only confirmed nine months after the fact, so the newest phase can be rewritten by what happens next. This is a map of what already happened, not a timetable for what comes next.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points). No external API at request time.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ (no external API)