Bitcoin Cycle Extremes+
The same cheap-or-expensive score as Cycle Extremes, graded from seven gauges instead of four: the four price ones plus three that read the chain itself — MVRV, SOPR and the share of coins in profit. The chain gauges saw the 2024–2025 market run hot when price alone did not. History, not advice.
Seven gauges, each scored from −1 (as cheap as that gauge has ever called it) through 0 (neutral) to +1 (as expensive), then averaged and flipped so green up is cheap and red down is expensive. Four read price: Mayer, Puell, the 200-week ratio and the long-term trend percentile. Three read the chain from our own node: MVRV, the 30-day mean of SOPR, and the share of all coins sitting in profit. Beside the bar the strict count is kept — cheap yes-or-no checks passed minus expensive, −7 to +7 — and the shaded columns light when three or more agree.
Positive scores mean cheaper conditions; negative scores mean more expensive conditions against these gauges. A score near +1 or −1 means the gauges are near their cheap or expensive thresholds. For example, −0.4 is an average expensive-side reading of 40% of the scale, not a 40% price forecast. Orange and green stripes mark agreement among strict checks, not confirmed future tops or bottoms.
The four price gauges are exactly those of Cycle Extremes. The three added ones: MVRV (market cap ÷ realized cap) is neutral at 1, cheap at 0.8, expensive at 3. SOPR averaged over 30 days is neutral at 1, cheap at 0.97, expensive at 1.03 — a narrow band because that is the whole range this measure has ever used: in sixteen years its most extreme 1% of days sit below 0.979 and above 1.032. The share of supply in profit is neutral at 75%, cheap at 50%, expensive at 95%. Each reading is placed between its own two ends (log scale for the ratios, linear for the percentages), clamped to ±1, and the seven are averaged with the sign flipped so cheap is positive.
For each date, the long-term trend and its percentile use only closes up to that date. Adding later prices does not recalibrate earlier readings; corrections to source data can. Thresholds were chosen using past cycles, so this is not an independently validated trading backtest.
For each date, the long-term trend and its percentile use only closes up to that date. Adding later prices does not recalibrate earlier readings; corrections to source data can. Thresholds were chosen using past cycles, so this is not an independently validated trading backtest.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points) plus our own Bitcoin node's realized cap, spent-output profit ratio and supply-in-profit, recomputed daily. No external API at request time.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ and our own Bitcoin node (no external API)