BTC Bitcoin Cycle Extremes+: 0.18
The same cheap-or-expensive score as Cycle Extremes, graded from seven gauges instead of four: the four price ones plus three that read the chain itself — MVRV, SOPR and the share of coins in profit. The chain gauges saw the 2024–2025 market run hot when price alone did not. History, not advice.
Seven gauges, each scored from −1 (as cheap as that gauge has ever called it) through 0 (neutral) to +1 (as expensive), then averaged and flipped so green up is cheap and red down is expensive. Four read price: Mayer, Puell, the 200-week ratio and the long-term trend percentile. Three read the chain from our own node: MVRV, the 30-day mean of SOPR, and the share of all coins sitting in profit. Beside the bar the strict count is kept — cheap yes-or-no checks passed minus expensive, −7 to +7 — and the shaded columns light when three or more agree.
This is the four-gauge chart with three more witnesses, and they mostly matter in the middle of the range. Through 2024 and 2025 the price gauges alone read about −0.35: warm, nothing more. With MVRV at 2.7, coins moving at a bigger profit than at any point in 2021, and 99% of supply in profit, the seven-gauge reading fell to −0.59 in December 2024 and stayed under −0.35 for a year.
The columns are stricter than the bars. **Orange** columns: three or more of the seven called an outright top — 2017, and December 2020 through April 2021. **Green** columns: three or more called an outright bottom — 2015, the 2018–2019 floor, March 2020, the whole of the 2022 bear, and June 2026. 2023, 2024 and 2025 never reach a column, because no three gauges ever agreed.
The four price gauges are exactly those of Cycle Extremes. The three added ones: MVRV (market cap ÷ realized cap) is neutral at 1, cheap at 0.8, expensive at 3. SOPR averaged over 30 days is neutral at 1, cheap at 0.97, expensive at 1.03 — a narrow band because that is the whole range this measure has ever used: in sixteen years its most extreme 1% of days sit below 0.979 and above 1.032. The share of supply in profit is neutral at 75%, cheap at 50%, expensive at 95%. Each reading is placed between its own two ends (log scale for the ratios, linear for the percentages), clamped to ±1, and the seven are averaged with the sign flipped so cheap is positive.
The three added gauges come from our own Bitcoin node, so they carry the same history as the price ones and no external API is called when the chart opens. They are not free of the market's plumbing: coins moved between an owner's own wallets still count as spent output, so SOPR reads the shuffling of custodians as well as real selling. The 200-week average needs about four years of earlier prices, so the line begins in 2014. Seven gauges is still a small jury, and they are not independent of each other: MVRV and the share of supply in profit both start from what coins last moved at.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points) plus our own Bitcoin node's realized cap, spent-output profit ratio and supply-in-profit, recomputed daily. No external API at request time.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ and our own Bitcoin node (no external API)