BTC Reserve Risk: 0.00017
Weighs how firmly long-time owners are holding against how expensive bitcoin is. Low readings mean patient owners are sitting tight while the price is cheap; high readings mean they are cashing out into an expensive market. Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node, daily from August 2010.
Today's price divided by a running measure of stored-up patience in old coins. Every day a coin sits still, that stored patience grows and pushes the ratio down; every time old coins get spent, it shrinks and pushes the ratio up.
For example, a reading below 0.0003 means the price is low while long-time owners are refusing to sell — every past bottom on this chart sat there (November 2011, January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022 all printed between 0.00016 and 0.00028). Readings **above** 0.0017 mean the price is high while long-time owners are selling; every past top sat there.
The tops get lower each cycle — 0.0131 in 2011, 0.0095 in 2013, 0.0058 in 2017, 0.0017 in 2021 — so the upper line is set at the weakest of the four rather than the loudest. It describes conditions that have occurred before; it **is not** advice.
In words: bitcoin's price divided by the accumulated, still-unspent patience of long-time owners.
Each day we measure how much coin-age holders spent, per coin in existence, and divide the day's price by it. Adding that up over every day since 2010 gives the running patience figure; today's price divided by that total is the number on the chart.
Read this against its own history, not against another site's numbers. Reserve Risk has no single official formula, and services that publish it feed in their own filtered version of coin movement, which puts their level roughly 2.7 times above ours even though the shape tracks closely (correlation 0.96 over the four years where both exist). The zone lines here are drawn from **our** history, which is why they are not the 0.0026 / 0.02 you may have seen elsewhere.
The patience figure only ever grows, so a reading from 2012 and a reading from today are not the same kind of number — compare each to the tops and bottoms near it, not across decades.
Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node: coin-days destroyed and coin supply read from the chain, priced against our own daily closes. Daily points from 18 August 2010, the first day bitcoin had a market price. No outside metrics feed is involved.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since Aug 2010 · recomputed daily