MVRV Z-Score

The same profit measure as MVRV, but rescaled to answer one question: how unusual is this compared with Bitcoin's own history? High readings have marked cycle tops, readings near zero have marked bottoms. Every point shown is real up to the date on the badge above the chart.

Take the gap between what all bitcoin is worth today and roughly what its owners paid, then measure that gap in units of 'how far from normal' — how many typical swings away from its own average the gap currently sits. Statisticians call this a z-score; here it simply means unusually high or low for Bitcoin.

For example, a reading of 6 means the profit gap is six typical swings wider than average. Below 0 the average owner paid more than bitcoin is worth today.

The coloured zones at 0, 2, 4 and 7 mark where past readings have clustered — and on the history our own node holds, the value has not touched either outer zone once in 1,267 days. It scores how stretched the gap is today; it says nothing about tomorrow.

In words: today's total bitcoin value minus the total valued at each coin's last-moved price, divided by how much that gap normally varies [(market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of that difference]. Computed in-house from our own Bitcoin node's realized cap — the value of every coin at the price it last moved at, which can only be obtained by reading the whole chain.

Every point on screen was counted by **our own Bitcoin node** — a full copy of the blockchain that we run ourselves — and the line runs up to the date on the badge **above** the chart. A day our node could not count is left as a gap; it is never filled in from another source.

Because it is scored against Bitcoin's own history, each cycle has peaked at a lower reading than the last, so the old thresholds get harder to reach.

Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node: realized cap (the value of every coin at the price it last moved at, which only a full read of the chain gives) and coin supply, set against the daily BTC closing price we store. The score needs 200 days of history before its first point, so the line starts in 2011. No outside metrics feed is involved.

Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since 2011 · recomputed daily