Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)

Compares what all bitcoin is worth today against roughly what its owners paid for it. Above 1 the average holder is in profit; below 1 the average holder is underwater. The points shown are real up to the date on the badge above the chart.

One number divided by another. The top number is what every bitcoin is worth at today's price.

The bottom number values each coin at the price it last changed hands at — a good stand-in for what its owner paid. So the ratio says how many times its purchase price the average coin is now worth.

For example, if this reads 2.1, the average coin is worth about twice what its owner paid — historically that is where big holders have started taking profits. Under 1.0 the average holder is sitting on a loss, which has **only** happened in the deepest parts of past downturns.

Readings near 3.5 and above lined up with the top of every previous four-year cycle. What happened in past cycles **is not** a promise about this one.

In words: the value of all bitcoin at today's price, divided by the value of all bitcoin at the price each coin last moved at [market cap ÷ realized cap — 'realized cap' is that second, purchase-price number]. Computed in-house from our own Bitcoin node's realized cap — the value of every coin at the price it last moved at, which can only be obtained by reading the whole chain.

Every point on screen was counted by **our own Bitcoin node** — a full copy of the blockchain that we run ourselves — and the line runs up to the date on the badge **above** the chart. A day our node could not count is left as a gap; it is never filled in from another source.

Coins whose keys were lost still count at their last price, which pulls the average purchase price down a little.

Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node: realized cap (the value of every coin at the price it last moved at, which only a full read of the chain gives) and coin supply, set against the daily BTC closing price we store. One point per day from 2010, once a market price existed and the cost basis had formed. No outside metrics feed is involved.

Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since 2010 · recomputed daily

• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
• NVT Ratio
• SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
• Profit Momentum Rule
• Safu Selling Pressure — Tracked Transfers
• MVRV Z-Score
• Realized Mayer Multiple
• Long-Term Holder Realized Price
• Realized Price Bands
• LTH − STH MVRV Difference
• Reserve Risk
• Long-Term Holder NUPL