LTH − STH MVRV Difference
The profit gap between patient owners (coins unmoved for more than 180 days) and recent buyers. A wide gap has come late in past rallies; the gap closing or turning negative has come at the end of downturns. Every point shown is real up to the date on the badge above the chart.
Each group has a profit multiple: what their coins are worth today divided by what they paid. This chart is the patient owners' multiple minus the recent buyers' multiple, so it shows how much further ahead the patient group is.
For example, +2.5 means patient owners' coins are worth 2.5 times more relative to their cost than recent buyers' coins are — the patient crowd is far ahead, which in past cycles happened while new money was buying near the top. A gap near zero means both groups paid roughly the same, which follows a long flat stretch.
A negative gap means recent buyers are doing better than patient owners, and that has **only** occurred at the very end of deep downturns.
In words: the patient owners' profit multiple minus the recent buyers' profit multiple, each worked out as today's value divided by the price those coins last moved at.
Every point on screen was counted by **our own Bitcoin node** — a full copy of the blockchain that we run ourselves. The line starts in late 2011: before that almost every long-term coin dated from before Bitcoin had a market price and cost nothing, which put the long-term MVRV in the thousands. Like our NUPL and MVRV charts, it starts once price against each group's average cost had stayed at 10 or below for a full month. A day our node could not count is left as a gap; it is never filled in from another source.
The 180-day dividing line is a convention, and coins cross it every day just by ageing, so the gap shifts even when nobody trades. Note on the age split: our node's history before 2026-08-17 was replayed with a 155-day split between short- and long-term holders; from 2026-08-17 it uses 180 days, so the line can shift slightly on that date.
Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node's long- and short-term-holder realized prices (split at 180 days), set against the daily BTC closing price we store. Our node's rows for both groups run back to 2009; the line starts in late 2011, once both groups' average costs had settled into a range a market can produce. No outside data is used.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since 2011 · recomputed daily