Realized Price Bands
Bitcoin's price against the average price its owners paid, plus that same level multiplied by 1.5 and by 2.4. In past cycles the bottom line acted as a floor and the top line sat close to peaks. Every point shown is real up to the date on the badge above the chart.
Three reference lines under the price. The bottom one is the average price bitcoin owners paid.
The other two are that number multiplied by 1.5 and by 2.4 — levels that in past cycles roughly separated ordinary value from an overheated market.
For example, if the bottom line sits at $52,000, the middle line is around $78,000 and the top around $125,000. Price near the bottom line means the market as a whole is barely in profit, which is where every past cycle bottom happened.
Price **above** the top line means the average owner has more than doubled their money, a state past cycles could not hold for long. The two multipliers come from looking backwards at old cycles, not from any rule.
In words: draw the average price owners paid, then two more lines at 1.5 times and 2.4 times that value, with bitcoin's price on top.
Every point on screen was counted by **our own Bitcoin node** — a full copy of the blockchain that we run ourselves — and the line runs up to the date on the badge **above** the chart. A day our node could not count is left as a gap; it is never filled in from another source.
The multipliers were fitted to past cycles and will not necessarily bracket the next one.
Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node's realized price, drawn under the daily BTC closing price we store. One point per day from 18 August 2010, the first day bitcoin had a market price. No outside metrics feed is involved.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since Aug 2010 · recomputed daily