BTC Profit Momentum Rule: $84,380.26
Bitcoin's price and one fixed rule. **Green:** the rule chooses Bitcoin, because the share of coins that are in profit is higher than 30 days ago. **No colour:** the rule chooses dollars. **Diagonal stripes:** the real-time test, from 24 September 2026. The table below compares two results: following the rule, and keeping Bitcoin all the time.
**This chart tests one fixed rule.** The rule looks at one number: the share of all bitcoins that are worth more today than when they last moved. Such coins are said to be in profit. When that share is rising, the rule chooses Bitcoin. When that share is not rising, the rule chooses dollars. The share is rising when its average over the last 7 days is higher than it was 30 days ago.
**Green bands** on the chart mark the days when the rule chose Bitcoin. On the days between the green bands, the rule chose dollars.
The rule is checked at the end of each day and acts on the **next** day. The rule never uses a day's price change to decide on that same day.
**Diagonal stripes** show the real-time test: every day after 24 September 2026, the day this rule was written down. Everything to the left of the stripes is a test on past days. A test on past days usually makes a rule seem better than it really is. Only the striped part tests the rule on new days. The table under the chart shows the results for both parts.
All from our own data. Each day, our own Bitcoin node counts the coins that are in profit. We divide that number by the number of all coins in circulation and multiply by 100. Then we take the average of the last 7 days. If today's average is higher than the average 30 days ago, the rule chooses Bitcoin at the end of the day. If it is not higher, the rule chooses dollars. On the next day, money in Bitcoin rises or falls with the price, and money in dollars stays the same. Trading costs are not subtracted. The rule was fixed on 24 September 2026 and is not changed afterwards.
**This is not a forecast and not advice.** It is one fixed rule and its past results. In some periods, people who kept Bitcoin all the time earned more.
Our number counts **coins**, not people. Glassnode's version counts owners: it groups together the addresses that belong to one owner. We do not have that grouping. Our node sorts coins into price groups about 5% wide. When the price moves past a group that holds many coins, the share of coins in profit can jump by several points in one day. The 7-day average smooths out these jumps. Without the average, the rule would switch between Bitcoin and dollars several times a month.
Most of the time this rule gives the same answer as a simpler question: *is the price higher than a month ago?* That is because when the price rises, more coins become worth more than when they last moved. Trading costs and taxes are not included, and money kept in dollars earns nothing here.
Our own Bitcoin node: every day it counts the coins in profit and all coins across the whole blockchain. Our own daily closing prices, from 2010 to today. The page does not use any outside data source.
Own compute · Safu's own Bitcoin node + daily closes · 2010+ (no external API)