BTC Capitulation
The dollars destroyed each day by coins moving at a price below what they last moved at, averaged over 30 days. Unrealized loss is paper pain; this only counts coins that actually changed hands, so the spikes mark the days holders genuinely gave up. Cycle lows have historically formed inside those spikes, not before them.
For every coin spent on a day, compare the price it last moved at with the price it moved at today. Where today's price is lower, the difference is a **realized loss**. Summed over the day and averaged across 30 days.
Flat and low means holders are not selling into weakness. A **sustained spike** means real money is being written off — historically the shape that accompanies capitulation, and cycle lows have tended to form inside those phases rather than before them.
Read it against price on the log axis: loss rising while price falls is ordinary; loss **falling** while price still falls means the selling is exhausting.
This is the **aggregate across all holders**, not Quiet Hands. The patient-coin twin is **Quiet Hands Write-Off** (`lth-realized-loss`, coins unmoved ≥ 180 days). Dollar amounts are not inflation-adjusted, so old cycles look small next to new ones.
871 of 6,431 days read zero, nearly all in 2009–2011 when almost nothing moved at a loss. Those are real observations and are averaged in, not skipped.
Computed on our own Bitcoin node — every UTXO's cost basis fixed at the day it was created, from our own daily close · daily · history from 2009-01-03