BTC True Market Mean: $76,043.8
An estimate of what the average still-active bitcoin owner paid, leaving out coins that look lost or permanently abandoned. Price below this line has marked the cheapest stretches of past cycles. Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node, daily from August 2010.
A cleaner version of the market's average purchase price. It tries to strip out coins that **never** move — lost wallets, and coins abandoned in the early years — so what remains is the cost paid by owners who are genuinely still in the market.
For example, if this reads $60,000 while bitcoin trades at $110,000, the typical active owner is up about 83%. When the price falls below this line, active owners as a group are at a loss — in past cycles that happened **only** in the final weeks of a downturn.
Because dead coins are excluded, this line sits **above** the plain average purchase price and reacts faster to what living owners actually do.
In words: the total dollars ever put into bitcoin by owners who are still active, divided by the coins those owners hold.
Start with realized cap — the value of every coin at the price it last moved at, read from the whole chain. Subtract every dollar ever paid to miners, because that money created the supply rather than bought into it. Then divide by the awake share of supply, measured as the fraction of all coin-age ever created that has since been spent. Today that fraction sits near 0.64, so roughly a third of the supply counts as dormant.
Splitting supply into awake and dormant is a measurement, not a fact about anyone's intentions: a coin that has not moved in five years is treated as asleep even if its owner is very much awake and simply patient.
The line needs realized cap, coin-age and supply for the same day; days where any of the three is missing are skipped and show as a gap rather than a straight line drawn through nothing.
Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node: realized cap, coin-days destroyed and coin supply read from the chain, combined with our own daily closes and the miner revenue implied by the block subsidy and fees. Daily points from 18 August 2010. No outside metrics feed is involved.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since Aug 2010 · recomputed daily