BTC Miner Capitulation Cycles: 137.35%
Lines up each four-year cycle from the moment mining was at its hardest for miners — the low point in mining difficulty, when the weakest operations switched off. Each curve shows how far the price climbed from there, so you can compare the current run with past ones.
In every cycle there is a day when mining difficulty hits its lowest point, meaning the most machines had been switched off; traders call that moment miner capitulation. This chart sets the price on that day to 100% for each cycle, then tracks how the price moved afterwards.
Each cycle becomes one curve, coloured cold blue at the start and hot **red** as it ages, so you can see whether the current cycle is running ahead of or behind previous ones. For example, if the current curve reads 320% two years in while the previous cycle read 900% at the same point, this cycle has been far less explosive than the last.
Comparing four cycles is a rough guide, **never** a schedule.
In words: inside each four-year halving period, find the day mining difficulty was lowest, then plot the price as a percentage of the price on that day, coloured by how many days have passed since.
The current cycle's starting point can still move: if difficulty sets a new low, the whole current curve is rebased. Earlier cycles' starting points are settled and will not change.
Our own full BTC price history (btc_price_daily: blockchain.info daily closes, 2010-08 to today, 5800+ points). No external API at request time. + btc_daily difficulty.
Own compute · full BTC price history 2010+ (no external API)