BTC US 10-Year Real Yield: 2.55
What a ten-year US government bond pays AFTER inflation is taken out. It is the return an investor gives up by holding something that pays no interest — like gold, or bitcoin.
The yield on a ten-year US Treasury bond whose payments are adjusted for inflation. Because the inflation part is already stripped out, what is left is the real return the safest borrower in the world offers over a decade.
It has been negative — as low as about −1% in 2021 — which meant lending to the US government guaranteed a loss in purchasing power.
This is the price of patience. When the real yield is high, holding a bond pays you properly, and assets that pay no interest at all — gold, bitcoin — have to compete against that.
When it is low or negative, holding cash or bonds costs you purchasing power, and money looks for somewhere else to sit. Falling real yields have historically been the friendlier setting for bitcoin.
Published as-is by the US Treasury and redistributed by FRED; we store and draw the daily reading without altering it. Note the unit: this is percent per year, so 2.43 means 2.43% — the chart **does not** multiply or rescale it.
Business days **only** — no weekend or US-holiday reading, and none is invented. History starts January 2003, where the series begins. This is the market's implied real rate from inflation-protected bonds, not a forecast and **not the same** as a nominal yield minus the CPI print.
ALERT THRESHOLD. The real-yield alert fires when this line crosses ZERO, which is definitional rather than fitted: zero is the break-even between what the bond pays and expected inflation. On the 5,895 business-day readings we hold (2003-01-02 → 2026-07-27) that has happened 42 times — 21 into positive, 21 into negative, about 1.8 a year.
U.S. Department of the Treasury, 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity, via FRED series DFII10. Public domain.
FRED DFII10 — 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury constant maturity (US Treasury) · business-daily · percent per year