BTC Net Liquidity (Fed − Treasury cash − Reverse Repo): $5.86T
How many dollars the Federal Reserve is actually leaving in the financial system: everything the Fed owns, minus the cash the US Treasury is sitting on, minus the money parked back at the Fed overnight. Nobody publishes this number — we do the subtraction ourselves.
The dollars the Federal Reserve is actually leaving in the financial system. Start with everything the Fed owns — its balance sheet. Take away the cash the US Treasury is holding in its account at the Fed, because that money is out of the market.
Take away what banks and funds park back at the Fed overnight, because that money is out of the market too. What is left is net liquidity.
Rising means more money is loose in the system, which has historically been the easier weather for bitcoin and for risky assets generally. Falling means money is being drained — by the Treasury refilling its account after a debt-ceiling fight, or by the Fed shrinking what it owns.
This is a slow tide, not a trading trigger: read it in months, not in days.
In words: Fed total assets, minus the Treasury General Account, minus the overnight reverse repo balance — all in dollars, all read on the same Wednesday. The three inputs are published separately and **never** combined by the publisher; the subtraction is ours.
WEEKLY, not daily. The Fed publishes its balance sheet and the Treasury account once a week, stamped Wednesday, so this line carries one point per week and **never** more — it is not stretched into a daily line. The reverse-repo leg is published every business day and is read on that same Wednesday, or on the last business day before it when the Wednesday was a holiday; it is never interpolated. A week missing any of the three inputs is dropped whole rather than patched — which is why the early years are sparse: the Fed's overnight reverse-repo facility did not publish a figure on most Wednesdays before 2013, so those weeks have no net number at all. From 2013 onward the line is unbroken. This measures DOLLAR liquidity **only** — it says nothing about the euro, the yen or the yuan.
ALERT THRESHOLD. The net-liquidity alert reports a one-week change beyond −$149.96B or +$150.72B — the MEASURED 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 674 week-over-week changes (2013-04-10 → 2026-07-22). Weeks before 2013 are excluded from that measurement for the reason above: the reverse-repo leg was not published on most Wednesdays, so those weeks carry no net number at all. On that history the bands changed 52 times — 15 into a big drain, 13 into a big add, 24 back to ordinary — about 3.9 a year. It reports a change that already happened and makes no claim about what follows one.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED): WALCL (Fed total assets), WTREGEN (Treasury General Account, week average), RRPONTSYD (overnight reverse repo). Public domain.
Our own arithmetic on FRED WALCL, WTREGEN and RRPONTSYD (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) · weekly, stamped Wednesday