BTC Fed Funds Rate vs BTC: 3.63
The interest rate the US Federal Reserve sets — the base cost of borrowing dollars — drawn against Bitcoin's price. High rates make safe savings attractive; low rates push money toward risk.
The rate at which American banks lend money to each other overnight. It is the Federal Reserve's main lever and sets the floor for what every other loan and savings account in the economy pays.
For example, at 5.25% a saver can earn over 5% a year with no risk, which is stiff competition for an asset that pays no interest; at 0.25% that competition disappears. Every major Bitcoin rally so far began while rates were low or **falling**, and its sharpest fall came while rates were **rising** quickly through 2022.
Turning points matter more than the level, and this is a pattern from a handful of years, not a rule.
The published US federal funds effective rate as a percentage, drawn with bitcoin's price on the same chart for comparison. Nothing is calculated on our side.
This rate is published once a MONTH and always with a short delay, so the latest month's value repeats on the chart until the next release. Bitcoin has lived through **only** two full rate cycles, far too few to draw firm conclusions from. ALERT THRESHOLD.
The two drawn lines at 5% and 0% are reference marks, not alert edges — and the effective rate has **never** been negative (lowest month 0.05%), so a band below 0% could never be entered at all. The alert bands instead on 1.925% and 6.12%, the MEASURED 25th and 75th percentiles of all 864 monthly readings (1954-07 → 2026-06). Those two lines have been crossed 33 times, about 0.46 a year, and all three bands are genuinely reached (8 entries into the low band, 8 into the high one).
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), series FEDFUNDS - public domain; BTC price from our warehouse.
FRED FEDFUNDS · monthly, full history 1954+ · public domain