BTC Bitcoin's 90-Day Correlation to Macro: -0.05
How closely bitcoin has been moving with the dollar, the fear index, real interest rates and credit stress over the last 90 days — computed here from our own daily closes. It answers 'is bitcoin trading as a macro asset right now, or on its own?'
Correlation is a single number between −1 and +1 saying how two things moved together. +1 means they moved in lockstep, 0 means no relationship, −1 means they moved in perfect opposition.
Each line here is bitcoin against one macro series, measured over the last 90 calendar days and recalculated every day.
Near zero means bitcoin is trading on its own news and macro **is not** driving it. A deep negative reading against the dollar — say −0.6 — means bitcoin has effectively been a short-dollar trade for the last three months.
A strongly negative reading against the VIX means bitcoin is being sold when Wall Street gets scared, in other words trading as a risk asset rather than as a hedge. The value of the chart is the CHANGE: a correlation of −0.62 today against −0.31 a year ago says the relationship itself has doubled in strength.
In words, exactly: walk the macro series' own trading dates. For each consecutive pair of those dates, measure bitcoin's move as the log change between our stored closes on the same two dates, and the macro move over the same two dates — a log change for level indices (the dollar, the VIX) and a plain difference in percentage points for rates and spreads, which sit near zero and can go negative.
Then take the ordinary Pearson correlation of every such pair inside the trailing 90 calendar days. A point is printed **only** when at least 40 pairs are in the window.
The window is 90 CALENDAR days, which holds roughly 62 trading days because these markets close at weekends — bitcoin's weekend moves are not paired against a macro number that does not exist, they are simply outside the interval. Days where either side is missing are dropped, **never** filled. Net liquidity and jobless claims are NOT on this chart: they are weekly, 90 days holds about 13 of their points, and a correlation from 13 points is a coin-flip with decimals.
Correlation is not causation and it is not predictive — it describes what has already happened over the last three months, and it moves. Each line **only** exists as far back as its own macro series does, so the credit-spread line is the shortest of the four.
Our own warehouse: btc_price_daily closes crossed with the stored FRED series DTWEXBGS, VIXCLS, DFII10 and BAMLH0A0HYM2. The arithmetic is entirely ours — no vendor publishes this.
Computed in-house from our own btc_price_daily closes against the stored FRED series (DTWEXBGS, VIXCLS, DFII10, BAMLH0A0HYM2) · business-daily · 90-calendar-day rolling window