Cycle & value · 6 min read · Live · completed weeks

Is Bitcoin in a bull or bear cycle?

One-minute answer: SafuTrading's Cycle Regime compares completed weekly Bitcoin prices with a smoothed channel. A confirmed close above or below the channel changes the regime. The open week never counts before it finishes.

What it actually means

A regime is a broad market state, not a prediction for tomorrow. The channel smooths weekly price so short-lived noise is less likely to change the label.

Confirmation happens only after the weekly candle closes. During an open week, price may cross the channel and cross back. Counting that as a historical alert would use information nobody had at the time.

What to look for

Confirmed positive regime — The last completed weekly close satisfies the model's positive-state rule.
Confirmed defensive regime — The last completed weekly close satisfies the model's defensive-state rule.
Price inside the channel — The market is near the boundary. Wait for the completed-week confirmation rather than treating intrawweek movement as final.
A flip — The confirmed state changed after a weekly close. It is a slow cycle marker, not an intraday entry.

Worked example

If price crosses above the channel on Wednesday but closes the week back below it, no positive flip is recorded. If the Sunday UTC weekly close meets the rule, the new state becomes knowable after that close.

What this cannot tell you

A regime can change after price has already moved substantially because confirmation deliberately waits for a completed week.
Past flips are a reconstruction of what the rule would have confirmed, not a log proving an email was delivered.
The model describes trend state and can still experience false flips in sideways markets.

Data source

SafuTrading's in-house weekly Gaussian channel, calculated only from information available at each completed weekly close.

Open Cycle Regime — Weekly Gaussian regime channel and realized-price bands across Bitcoin history.