BTC Capitulation

The dollars destroyed each day by coins moving at a price below what they last moved at, averaged over 30 days. Unrealized loss is paper pain; this only counts coins that actually changed hands, so the spikes mark the days holders genuinely gave up. Cycle lows have historically formed inside those spikes, not before them.

For every coin spent on a day, compare the price it last moved at with the price it moved at today. Where today's price is lower, the difference is a **realized loss**. Summed over the day and averaged across 30 days.

Flat and low means holders are not selling into weakness. A **sustained spike** means real money is being written off — historically the shape that accompanies capitulation, and cycle lows have tended to form inside those phases rather than before them.

Read it against price on the log axis: loss rising while price falls is ordinary; loss **falling** while price still falls means the selling is exhausting.

This is the **aggregate across all holders**, not the long-term-holder cohort that some vendors chart. Our indexer emits realized loss without an age split, and calling an aggregate 'LTH' would claim a filter the data does not have. Splitting by coin age at spend time is possible but needs a rollup change and a full history re-replay.

871 of 6,431 days read zero, nearly all in 2009–2011 when almost nothing moved at a loss (only one zero in the last 90 days). Those are real observations and are averaged in, not skipped — skipping them would quietly inflate every early-cycle number.

Dollar amounts are not inflation-adjusted, so old cycles look small next to new ones.

Computed on our own Bitcoin node — every UTXO's cost basis fixed at the day it was created, from our own daily close · daily · history from 2009-01-03