静手核销

静手——至少 180 天没动、然后低于上次成交价卖出的币——每天注销的美元，再取 30 日平均。不是每一次普通回调的抛售，只统计已经跨过我们六个月 HODL 分界的币。旁边是对数比特币价格。

Quiet Hands are coins that have already graduated our six-month HODL band (unmoved ≥ 180 days). For every coin spent on a day, compare the USD price when it last moved with the price it moved at now. Where today's price is lower, that dollar gap is a realized loss. If the coin was Quiet Hands, the loss is counted here. The chart plots the trailing 30-day mean, because the raw daily series is too spiky to read.

A cycle-scale spike means coins that had sat still for half a year are being sold at a loss — patient money giving up. The easing of that spike, while price is still far off its high, is the cooling shape: the worst of that selling is fading.

For example, a 30-day mean of $80 million/day next to a falling log-price is Quiet Hands selling into weakness; the same mean falling while price is still down means those sellers are exhausting.

Read it against the log price. This is not a forecast and not advice.

Same as aggregate realized loss, then keep only spends whose age at spend time is ≥ 180 days. Why 180: thirteen 14-day difficulty epochs and half a Gregorian year both land at 182; our HODL waves already split at 180 (`age_6m_1y`). We use 180 so this line and LTH supply / HODL waves agree. Not Glassnode's 155-day midpoint. 30-day simple mean. Zeros are real days and stay in the average.

180 days is our band edge, not a fact about people. Coins cross it just by ageing. We do not cluster addresses into entities, so a holder who splits coins across wallets is counted per UTXO. Dollar amounts are not inflation-adjusted, so 2018 looks small next to 2026.

This page is empty on purpose until the from-0 replay finishes. Three tip-days already sit in the warehouse; we will not publish them as a 30-day mean. Aimed live date: 28 August 2026. If that date passes, the line still waits for the recount — it does not flip on with a stub.

Safu UTXO indexer on our own Bitcoin node. Cost basis = our daily close on the day the output was created. Spot overlay from btc_price_daily (2010→).

Computed on our own Bitcoin node — loss counted only when the spent coin is ≥ 180 days old · daily · history fills as the indexer replays from genesis

• MVRV（市值 / 已实现市值）
• NUPL（净未实现盈亏）
• Capitulation — Realized Loss (30-Day Average)
• NVT Ratio（网络价值与交易量比率）
• SOPR（花费产出利润率）
• MVRV Z-Score（市值/已实现市值 Z 分数）
• Realized Price（已实现价格）
• Realized Mayer Multiple（已实现价格的 Mayer 倍数）
• Long-Term Holder Realized Price（长期持有者已实现价格）
• 真实市场均价（True Market Mean）
• 已实现价格通道
• LTH − STH MVRV 差值（长期持有者与短期持有者之差）