Cycle & value · 6 min read · Historical snapshot

MVRV: is Bitcoin expensive versus what owners paid?

One-minute answer: MVRV divides what all Bitcoin is worth at today's price by an estimate of what the coins cost when they last moved. Above 1, the average coin is in profit; below 1, the average coin is underwater.

What it actually means

Market value prices every existing bitcoin at today's market price. Realized value prices each coin at the market price on the day that coin last moved. That last-moved price is used as a rough stand-in for the owner's cost.

Dividing market value by realized value shows how far the market sits above or below that estimated cost base. It is a whole-network average, not your personal profit.

What to look for

Below 1 — The market value is below the network's estimated cost base. The average coin is underwater.
Around 1 — Market value and the estimated network cost base are near each other.
Rising above 1 — Unrealized profit across the network is expanding.
Historically very high — Owners have large paper profits, which can create selling pressure. History is not a timing promise.

Worked example

MVRV at 2.4 means Bitcoin's total market value is about 2.4 times the realized value. It does not mean every holder made 140%, because every coin has a different last-moved price.

What this cannot tell you

A coin moving between two wallets owned by the same person resets its last-moved price even though no purchase happened.
Lost coins and exchange wallets remain part of the calculation.
The current SafuTrading series is a historical snapshot. Read the last-data date before using the value.

Data source

Historical on-chain series; SafuTrading's own Bitcoin node is rebuilding the calculation from the first block.

Open MVRV — Bitcoin market value divided by realized value, with price for context.