BTC Cost Basis Map: $76,395.02
Bitcoin's price against what three groups of owners paid for their coins: everyone (Realized Price), the owners still active (True Market Mean) and the recent buyers (Short-Term Holder cost basis, 180 days). Green columns mark the days price sat above both long-run cost bases. Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node.
Three cost bases, one price. The Realized Price is the average price at which every coin last moved. The True Market Mean strips out coins that look lost or permanently parked and averages only the owners still in the market. The Short-Term Holder cost basis averages the coins that moved within the last 180 days — the market's newest money. Each is a dollar level, so all three sit on the price axis.
The reading is where price sits among the three lines. Above all three, every group is in profit and the market has usually been in an uptrend; the green columns show exactly those stretches. Under the STH line but above the other two, recent buyers are underwater — the first crack. Under the True Market Mean, the active market as a whole is at a loss. Under the Realized Price, even the average holder of every coin is underwater — past cycle bottoms formed there.
In words: Realized Price = the value of every coin at the price it last moved, divided by the number of coins. True Market Mean = (realized cap − every dollar ever paid to miners) ÷ (coin supply × liveliness), where liveliness is the share of all coin-days ever created that have been spent. STH cost basis = the total paid for coins younger than 180 days ÷ how many of those coins there are. The green column rule: price above the Realized Price AND above the True Market Mean on that day.
Our short-term holder cut-off is 180 days; Glassnode's is 155, so their STH line and ours differ slightly. All three lines run from 2010 on our own node. All three are averages of cost — they say what owners paid, not what they will do.
Computed by Safu from its own Bitcoin node: realized cap, coin-days destroyed, supply and the short-term holder cost basis read from the chain, combined with our own daily closes.
Computed in-house from Safu's Bitcoin node · 1 point/day since Aug 2010 · recomputed daily